Published by CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) on July 28, 2025 and authored by Benjamin Jensen and Ian Reynolds, this policy report argues that AI capital expenditure was already a measurable driver of US GDP growth, contributing an estimated 1.1 percentage points in the first half of 2025, while also projecting significant near-term labor displacement. The report makes the case for strategic restraint in AI-driven geopolitical competition rather than an accelerationist posture.
Its combination of hard macroeconomic estimation with geopolitical strategy recommendations distinguishes it from most AI research reports, which tend to focus on either economic impact or policy separately rather than combining both.